Reporting by Edmee di Robilant, part one of two.
The wine sector is experiencing a period of immense change. As a great lover of wine – and for all other great lovers out there – I find it important to identify what possible future scenarios will look like.
The situation right now
In 2023, extreme weather events hit every latitude of the planet. Hailstorms, sudden frosts and severe droughts led to a worldwide drop in wine production of 10%. The areas that suffered most were Italy, Spain, Australia, Argentina, Chile, Brazil and South Africa, with falls of between 10 and 30%. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), this was the lowest result since 1961.
Only France was spared, increasing its production by 1.5% compared with the previous year.
What does the future of wine look like?
According to a 2020 study published in notable scientific journal PNAS, if the global temperature were to increase by 2°C, 56% of the areas for wine production would be lost. If it were to increase by another 4°C, this would rise to 85%. In such a catastrophic scenario, one possible solution to mitigate this enormous loss is to plant a wide variety of cultivars. It is estimated that with an increase in the biodiversity of vines, the percentages detailed above would almost halve: with an increase of 2°C, the total loss would fall from 56% to 24%, and in a 4°C scenario, from 85% to 58%.
An encouraging example that should motivate us to implement methods to safeguard global wine production.
Extreme weather events are increasingly frequent and intense, causing difficult and unpredictable harvest years – this is what emerges from talking to producers, fear and uncertainty for the future. If no immediate action is taken, between 2030 and 2050 the temperature will rise by 1.5°C, significantly altering climate equilibria.
The strength of vitis vinifera is that it has good climatic resilience, the plant will likely adapt in one way or another. Unfortunately for winegrowers, however, the crop will still suffer from excessive water stress. For this reason, many producers are increasingly moving northwards: to areas in which wine was never historically produced, but are now suitable for making wines with good levels of acidity and freshness. Conversely, in the south, winegrowers are forced to anticipate their harvests in order to obtain the right grape concentration. And yet the excessive lack of water often leads to low yields production and poor quality.
Particularly worrying about this movement of vines to new areas is that, if done superficially – i.e. without taking into account the local ecosystems, applying a conventional approach disconnected from the surrounding area – land will (and will continue to be) over-exploited; as is the case in many parts of northern Italy with intensive over-cultivation of vineyards.
What are the possible solutions that winegrowers can adopt?
Planting a wide variety of native cultivars that are easily adapted to the specific climate and terroir is a strategic choice; some varieties, for example, are much more resistant to drought. So is keeping the plant’s foliage extended to protect the grapes from the sun. Or one can create a protective layer on the soil between the rows, practise spontaneous grassing and plant leguminous plants for green manure, excellent at encouraging the natural production of nitrogen. These techniques help to create a symbiosis with the vine and supply nutrients to the soil. Finally, it will be crucial to build ecological corridors on cultivated lands, in order to preserve the crucial biodiversity of our agricultural ecosystems.
These, and other solutions will have to be developed, disseminated and implemented to preserve the industry and tradition of winemaking. Wine is a leading source of cultural and economic heritage worldwide, and urgent action is needed if we are to safeguard it for ourselves and for future generations.
Sources:
Header Image: Copyright of Associated Press. Available online at: https://nypost.com/2022/08/26/french-wine-country-has-earliest-harvest-ever-after-drought/
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Cinquemani, T. 2019. Viticulture, nine tips to defend against climate change. Agronotizie. Available online here: https://agronotizie.imagelinenetwork.com/agricoltura-economia-politica/2019/12/13/viticoltura-nove-consigli-per-difendersi-dai-cambiamenti-climatici/65194
Morales-Castilla, I. et al. 2020. Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses. PNAS, 117: 2864-2869.
Redazione Terra e Vita. 2023. Wine, world production down 7% in 2023. Available online here: https://terraevita.edagricole.it/viticoltura/vino-nel-2023-produzione-mondiale-in-calo-del-7/#:~:text=%20World%20wine%20production%20,%20drawals%20in%20different%20continents
van Leeuwen, C. et al. 2024. Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5: 258-275.
Virgilio, V. 2024. Wine, drought and frost collapse production to 1961 levels. AGI. Available online here: https://www.agi.it/estero/news/2024-04-27/vino-siccita-gelo-produzione-mondiale-crolla-26176069/
Wine News. 2024. Climate damages agriculture, wine suffers most: volume production falls -17.4%. Available online here: https://winenews.it/it/il-clima-danneggia-lagricoltura-il-vino-soffre-piu-di-tutti-la-produzione-in-volume-segna-174_529065/